This is a great way of putting it from David Lodge in this morning’s New York Times:
The Labor Party under Tony Blair has occupied much of the center-right territory formerly held by the Conservatives, while the Liberal Democrats, who used to offer a wishy-washy compromise between those two, have moved to the left of Labor. So, as the columnist Simon Jenkins put it in The Times of London the other day, if you want a Conservative government vote Labor, if you want a Labor government vote Liberal Democrat, and if you want a Liberal government vote Conservative. Got that?
Most polls have predicted that Labor will be returned with a comfortable majority, but polls that count only respondents who say they are certain to vote make the gap much narrower. There is widespread dissatisfaction, mainly related to the war in Iraq, among people who supported Labor in the last two elections, but nobody really knows what proportion of them will reluctantly vote Labor, or register a protest vote for one of the other parties, or abstain.
It is not looking good for the Tories, especially if this poll as displayed at the BBC and released yesterday is to be believed:
Despite it being half a century since UK politics heavily influenced ours, if you compare the Canadian and UK scenes, they are not that different – exchanging Gomery for Iraq, gaelic spearation for gallic. A voting populace in flux. The centre has become the party of natural power after a harrowing experience of Tory government in the 80s and early 90s. The moderating left is being accepted as a viable alternative by the low 20s in percent. Toryism is now limited to core regional areas. One key factual difference is the acceptance of asymetrical constitutional rights for the Irish, Scots and Welsh which has diminished tension but, still, legitimized parking the vote there – each main party would love to get at that 10% of the vote…not so different I suppose in effect form the block of votes for the Bloc. Will there be any lessons in the outcome for our Parliament come Thursday evening our time?
Never fear for top reportage, however, as the Flea is on the scene for the vote and V-E day.