Apparently I was channeling Paul Wells on Monday. Like him, I am now amazed:
Just about all the trends have changed. Nanos now has the Conservative top-line national vote down to essentially where it was in 2008; other national polls put that vote lower. In Ontario, Nanos has the NDP vote above its 2008 level on an upward trend. Other polls I’ve seen put Conservative vote in that province lower than Nanos does. The NDP vote is entering territory where it starts to endanger Conservatives in some place, where before it mostly helped them by splitting the anti-Conservative vote with the Liberals.
Who is to blame? Harper’s campaign advisors. As Ben frets, I noted that I have a lot of like for Harper but don’t get his presentation of himself. Backing asbestos exports? As I wrote in January, Canada’s role in this poison is disgusting, but as a campaign message it’s insane. The 2010 black quilted Canada jacket? Yawn. Put on a hockey jersey, you dope. The “just happen to be jamming in the living room” stuff. The kids will flock to that CCR stuff. Sure they will.
As a result, so far Harper is failing, Iggy is really failing and Gilles is failing big big time. But it call can change. And it can all turn on three-way splits. Who am I gonna vote for?
None