OK. It is now act two. We have passed the first act, established a whole bunch of stuff, the main players have made their best opening statements and we have a sense of where the story is going. And we know we are nowhere near act four because the stage is not yet littered with bodies.
The election has gone well for everyone ten days in and we now that because nothing much has changed. No one has made a huge gaffe and the polls have not really shifted much except to indicate that the population is conspiring to maintain a Liberal minority.
- Jay has staked his reputation and maybe a few ales on the conservatives ending up with about 50 seats, roughly half of what they have now and thinks that he is seeing that already coming to be. Other conservatives are not so bleak but one Grit is even strong on an announcement for stronger gun laws. That is confidence.
- Jay also has found a great site keeping track of the polls called nodice.ca. The last poll they note shows:
Liberal – 40%
Conservative 28%
NDP – 17%
Bloc – 11%
Green – 14%This is Liberal majority territory. Stephen Taylor is sifting for clues. It will be interesting to see if this is a blip from the subtly different world of 36.5, 29, 12, 18 and 4.5, to see if there is a recoil back from the brink to ensure another minority.
- No one has gotten dirtymouthed yet and I think that no one will for now. If anyone starts saying bad things about others before the holidays it will only hurt them and nothing will be gained. So the NDP does not slam private medical clinics, both Layton and Martin will not say Harper is evil and Harper is rolling out large-ish spending like on childcare, reviving the baby-bonus in a way to the interest of some, even when he is cutting 4.5 billion or more from the budget with the GST cut and now another cut for small business. I think that the comment from a Liberal “handler” that the Conservatives were announcing too much for their own good is probably the most honest assessment of where we are. A word to the wise and an admission in one. Some call it hiding but if the polls are dropping why would you rock the boat?
Act two. In some plays it is like the second period of hockey, when you go away and do something else expecting either something interesting and different or the boringly same when you come back. No one wants to be the butt of Christmas party jokes, the only thing that the not so funny guy said that is remembered by everyone.