Month: December 2005

I was not going to write this every day but the gods do conspire and this is a pretty good election we have going in terms of ideas. I can’t believe I wrote that. I can’t believe I could actually write that with some basis in fact. Do you remember foreign policy? That means that your government considers what its role in the world is. All of a sudden, after almost years of some action but not much thinking about what we should be, the stumps are hearing some thoughts about what we might be to others and not just ourselves.

First, the Prime Ministers has gotten into a shouting match with the US over global warming policy. This was inevitable. Maybe the administration just realized that Rick Mercer was making fun of them on the government’s own broadcaster. Hey! There is nothing wrong with making a few pence off the CBC and having something to say as well I’ve always said. Anyway, it is a good bit of finger-pointery over issues that the Liberals do disagree with the Bush administration so why not have an argument. And I don’t mind if the US ambassador to Canada says something like this:

“It may be smart election-year politics to thump your chest and criticize your friend and your No. 1 trading partner constantly,” Wilkins said, “But it is a slippery slope, and all of us should hope that it doesn’t have a long-term impact on the relationship.”

as long as we get to say back that in under a year there is a very good chance that the relationship will be with a very lame duck president given the polls in the US.

Apart from the US relationship, the Conservative party has announced the first bit of its defence policy. The Babbling Man, Canada nicest and best informed amateur military commentator, has a good review of the four proposals all of which I agree with except for the resurrection of an airborne group. As far as I can tell, it is our superduper secret commando capacity of JFT2 that has been most effective in the war on terror. I’d say add another 650 of them rather than make a political move like paratroopers. What next? An aircraft carrier? Better also to consider simply another 3,000 to 5,000 infantry like the kind we are relying on in NATO’s work in Afganistan.

Then, the Haavaad man considers the sensible position of Michael Ignatieff, Liberal Star candidate and brain…such a brain, as to when it is right to use these sorts of troops. People thinking about foreign policy. Amazing.

OK. It is now act two. We have passed the first act, established a whole bunch of stuff, the main players have made their best opening statements and we have a sense of where the story is going. And we know we are nowhere near act four because the stage is not yet littered with bodies.

The election has gone well for everyone ten days in and we now that because nothing much has changed. No one has made a huge gaffe and the polls have not really shifted much except to indicate that the population is conspiring to maintain a Liberal minority.

• Jay has staked his reputation and maybe a few ales on the conservatives ending up with about 50 seats, roughly half of what they have now and thinks that he is seeing that already coming to be. Other conservatives are not so bleak but one Grit is even strong on an announcement for stronger gun laws. That is confidence.
• Jay also has found a great site keeping track of the polls called nodice.ca. The last poll they note shows:
  

  Liberal – 40%
  Conservative 28%
  NDP – 17%
  Bloc – 11%
  Green – 14%

  This is Liberal majority territory. Stephen Taylor is sifting for clues. It will be interesting to see if this is a blip from the subtly different world of 36.5, 29, 12, 18 and 4.5, to see if there is a recoil back from the brink to ensure another minority.

• No one has gotten dirtymouthed yet and I think that no one will for now. If anyone starts saying bad things about others before the holidays it will only hurt them and nothing will be gained. So the NDP does not slam private medical clinics, both Layton and Martin will not say Harper is evil and Harper is rolling out large-ish spending like on childcare, reviving the baby-bonus in a way to the interest of some, even when he is cutting 4.5 billion or more from the budget with the GST cut and now another cut for small business. I think that the comment from a Liberal “handler” that the Conservatives were announcing too much for their own good is probably the most honest assessment of where we are. A word to the wise and an admission in one. Some call it hiding but if the polls are dropping why would you rock the boat?

Act two. In some plays it is like the second period of hockey, when you go away and do something else expecting either something interesting and different or the boringly same when you come back. No one wants to be the butt of Christmas party jokes, the only thing that the not so funny guy said that is remembered by everyone.