Tag: News, Politics, Events

[Ed.: Read the GX40 election 2005/06 archives.]

I wrote this over at Ben’s this morning about the relative hugeness of the refusal of Federal finance minister Ralph Goodale to step aside while the RCMP conducts a criminal investigation into a possible leak of information from his department:

It really should be the only thing so far that is huge since the writ dropped. “Beer and popcorn” and a blogging fool were personal stupidities. This is a criminal investigation of a cabinet minister. Is there a problem with the non-stop accusations of the blogosphere that we can no longer tell the difference? Hey – I am going to make a post about that…gimme it back…gimme…it…back (pop!). There.

The dangers of blogging this time is to those invoved in the all scandal all the time crowd that cannot tell a big problem from a little one. So far the GOTCHA moments have been, first, an unkind (but technically correct) comment by a high placed government-side staffer about another party’s proposals on child care and, second, a resignation over a really, really stupid series of blog postings by a slightly less well placed government-side staffer who actually jumped on his sword fairly quickly. These two gotchas add up to zippo.

But Ralph’s situtation is different. For the background of the story, read Stephen Taylor’s post of 15 December. What is being alleged is some sort of leak to the marketplace allowing certain investors to make a bundle before an official announcement. Didn’t Martha do jail time for just saying something like that didn’t happen, regardless of the findings of whether she participated in it?

Lesson for blogosphere: this is what big looks like.

Are other peoples’ elections this dull? The more I think about the two debates the more I am stunned by how ineffective they were. The Globe and Mail reports this morning:

Twenty-one per cent of those who saw the debates or heard about them afterward said Mr. Martin won, compared to 15 per cent who said Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe came out on top, 11 per cent who thought Conservative Leader Stephen Harper was victorious and 6 per cent who favoured NDP Leader Jack Layton. Still, 47 per cent of those surveyed couldn’t decide who was the victor and only 4 per cent said they heard anything that would cause them to change their votes. The debate had no impact,” said Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner of [polling firm] The Strategic Counsel. “It was a big yawn.”

I like the “or heard about them” because what other country holds the main election debate on Friday night the weekend before Christmas? What is not mentioned in the article is how many actually watched the debate. I think it was the 327 in the country people for shopping, invited to parties, having people over or napping.

It is sad because good people whose party is not catching the public imagination have had to resort to blaming the crooked media and dumb Ontario and bovine Canadian acceptance of corruption and everything else that can be dreamed up to avoid the reality that their leader is dull. Dudly deadly dull. And, in any event, what is really happening is every Canadian is remembering how they voted last time because they know if they do it again there will be a useful minority government once more and these guys will have to work together.

Update: interesting to see the old law school pal and one-time roomie Cy is “running the Liberal war-room” according to Paul Wells. I remember thinking back then that if folks like him were to be involved in politics it would be in good hands even though, when I think about it, the party membership he got me to sign up for to help Martin’s run for the leadership around 1990 didn’t get Martin my vote then or since.

Note: to date, 82 referrals to GX40 from the CBC roundtable and 28 to the beer blog. One link from the Instapundit in November was worth 222. With 270064 visits on my server stats for November, I am starting to see the importance of spam for my image of self-worth.

The election is going to slide soon. I feel it in my achy joints:

• You have these words of Mr. Harper from 1997 popping up again:
  

  Bilingualism is largely propaganda, Mr. Harper tells the group. Canada “is basically an English-speaking country,” he says. In describing Canada’s political system, he says the New Democrats are worse than a party of liberal Democrats. “The NDP is kind of proof that the devil lives and interferes in the affairs of men.” And on the Progressive Conservatives — the party that amalgamated with his Canadian Alliance to form the Conservative Party — he points out they were “in favour of gay rights officially, officially for abortion-on-demand.”

• In the campaign plane heading to Vancouver yesterday you have him saying these sorts of things:
  

  Harper suggested that most provincial and territorial leaders “hate” Martin with the notable exception of McGuinty. “And I wouldn’t want him behind my back,” joked the Tory leader, an apparent reference to the problems McGuinty has caused to Martin over the past two years…But, he said, he is bracing for an onslaught of attacks on himself and the party in the three weeks leading up to the Jan. 23 vote. While that worked in 2004, Harper said he doesn’t believe the Liberal strategy of personally demonizing him will be successful this time. Declining to discuss specifics, he said the Tories have a strategy to “blunt” the expected Liberal attacks. “Wait and see,” he said.

• Meanwhile, Jack Layton is not that complimentary over how relations with the US have been brought into the election:
  

  Mr. Layton, meanwhile, said it’s not [US ambassador] Mr. Wilkins, but Mr. Martin who should be blamed. “Canadians have known that Liberals will say anything in an election to get elected. I think now the ambassador has discovered the same thing,” he said in Burnaby, B.C.Mr. Layton said the Liberal Leader can’t lecture the United States on greenhouse gas reductions because Canada has done “much worse” than the Americans under the Liberals’ watch. “He talks about the global conscience. Where is his? The fact is, he’s electioneering. He’ll say anything to get elected and whipping up the rhetoric against [U.S. President] George Bush is very easy to do. The problem is he hasn’t delivered the goods.”

While it isn’t nice to be rude and going around saying other people “hate” other other people has a sort of dopey kid junior high feel to it, isn’t it about time we got back to the good old days of the shouting match? You know, Mulroney telling Turner in the debate that he has no spine after Tuner said he had no choice but to make political appointments chosen by the departing Trudeau? If we can’t expect high thought in this campaign can we at least get some nasty shots?

I was not going to write this every day but the gods do conspire and this is a pretty good election we have going in terms of ideas. I can’t believe I wrote that. I can’t believe I could actually write that with some basis in fact. Do you remember foreign policy? That means that your government considers what its role in the world is. All of a sudden, after almost years of some action but not much thinking about what we should be, the stumps are hearing some thoughts about what we might be to others and not just ourselves.

First, the Prime Ministers has gotten into a shouting match with the US over global warming policy. This was inevitable. Maybe the administration just realized that Rick Mercer was making fun of them on the government’s own broadcaster. Hey! There is nothing wrong with making a few pence off the CBC and having something to say as well I’ve always said. Anyway, it is a good bit of finger-pointery over issues that the Liberals do disagree with the Bush administration so why not have an argument. And I don’t mind if the US ambassador to Canada says something like this:

“It may be smart election-year politics to thump your chest and criticize your friend and your No. 1 trading partner constantly,” Wilkins said, “But it is a slippery slope, and all of us should hope that it doesn’t have a long-term impact on the relationship.”

as long as we get to say back that in under a year there is a very good chance that the relationship will be with a very lame duck president given the polls in the US.

Apart from the US relationship, the Conservative party has announced the first bit of its defence policy. The Babbling Man, Canada nicest and best informed amateur military commentator, has a good review of the four proposals all of which I agree with except for the resurrection of an airborne group. As far as I can tell, it is our superduper secret commando capacity of JFT2 that has been most effective in the war on terror. I’d say add another 650 of them rather than make a political move like paratroopers. What next? An aircraft carrier? Better also to consider simply another 3,000 to 5,000 infantry like the kind we are relying on in NATO’s work in Afganistan.

Then, the Haavaad man considers the sensible position of Michael Ignatieff, Liberal Star candidate and brain…such a brain, as to when it is right to use these sorts of troops. People thinking about foreign policy. Amazing.

OK. It is now act two. We have passed the first act, established a whole bunch of stuff, the main players have made their best opening statements and we have a sense of where the story is going. And we know we are nowhere near act four because the stage is not yet littered with bodies.

The election has gone well for everyone ten days in and we now that because nothing much has changed. No one has made a huge gaffe and the polls have not really shifted much except to indicate that the population is conspiring to maintain a Liberal minority.

• Jay has staked his reputation and maybe a few ales on the conservatives ending up with about 50 seats, roughly half of what they have now and thinks that he is seeing that already coming to be. Other conservatives are not so bleak but one Grit is even strong on an announcement for stronger gun laws. That is confidence.
• Jay also has found a great site keeping track of the polls called nodice.ca. The last poll they note shows:
  

  Liberal – 40%
  Conservative 28%
  NDP – 17%
  Bloc – 11%
  Green – 14%

  This is Liberal majority territory. Stephen Taylor is sifting for clues. It will be interesting to see if this is a blip from the subtly different world of 36.5, 29, 12, 18 and 4.5, to see if there is a recoil back from the brink to ensure another minority.

• No one has gotten dirtymouthed yet and I think that no one will for now. If anyone starts saying bad things about others before the holidays it will only hurt them and nothing will be gained. So the NDP does not slam private medical clinics, both Layton and Martin will not say Harper is evil and Harper is rolling out large-ish spending like on childcare, reviving the baby-bonus in a way to the interest of some, even when he is cutting 4.5 billion or more from the budget with the GST cut and now another cut for small business. I think that the comment from a Liberal “handler” that the Conservatives were announcing too much for their own good is probably the most honest assessment of where we are. A word to the wise and an admission in one. Some call it hiding but if the polls are dropping why would you rock the boat?

Act two. In some plays it is like the second period of hockey, when you go away and do something else expecting either something interesting and different or the boringly same when you come back. No one wants to be the butt of Christmas party jokes, the only thing that the not so funny guy said that is remembered by everyone.