#6 – 103 On The Edge Of The Abyss

I would only ever say this to the others, of course.  In complete confidence.  That is to say, the level of confidence we attach to our more enthusiastic, brandy-fuelled  discussions  of our various mistress’ amourous preferences.

But the truth of the matter is that 103 seats belies our weakness at this point.  The party is a shambles.  The creditors are basting us with increasingly scalding red ink.  The vast majority of our rank-and-file are more interested in the game of power, played at whichever level their own competence affords them, than in ideas of policy.  The elite – the former elite, I should correct – have lost the common touch that was the key to admission into the upper echelons of political society in the first place.

Twenty two seats short of The Despised Ones, and it may as well be two hundred and twenty two for all the good a tight result did us!  Until we repair our finances, our ideology, our standing with the voting public,  we are nothing but a paper tiger.  Until we choose a leader to bring us out of this horrid hole into which we’ve fallen – God, my head pounds just thinking of the necessary carnage that process will unleash! – The Unwashed will have a free reign.

The worst part is that they know it, too.  It’s humiliating, enough to make the bile rise in my throat.  And I’m not alone – I can see the anger covering the shame in all of our eyes.  We were Ministers of The Crown, for Christ’s sake!

God, I hope it goes to their heads.  I hope every redneck of them bullies us on the other side of the House.  Upset as our friends are with us at this moment, the fourth estate will surely not let that pass.  A government with so many enemies beyond their reach cannot afford cockiness, but if the fates smile upon us, these cowboys will be too simple to realize that until it is too late.

We can only hope.  Well, hope and lay careful foundations…

#5 – Montreal

How does this logging in work? Cursed Internet – could never figure these things out. Would it be acceptable if I just dictate to my secretary and she sends the copy to your P.A. for input? We might as well put them to work while we still have the budget. I’ll probably have to sack the old girl when we get the new budget. Still, I’ve had her for 12 years so some fresh blood would be a nice change.

I tried to console the boss on Tuesday. Though he expelled me from the office, accusing me of being a charlatan and a “false friend.” Whatever you say about the old man he remains an astute judge of character. That’s a joke of course. Actually he caught sight of my rather large grin as he was trying to hold back tears. Yes, to be completely honest I was rather pleased with the result of the little race. The old man didn’t really have the clarity of vision that I admire in a leader. And little interest in my areas of concern.

And opposition can be an absolute hoot! You’re too young to remember, but in the old days we used to be like Sinatra and his clique. Better still, we get another convention. I love conventions. Balloons, booze, broads and a weekend at a five-star all paid for by the Party (except the broads of course). I do hope we can set it for Montreal this time. I cannot believe we had to suffer through Toronto on the last occasion. Plus, Montreal women are fantastic!

#4 – One Hundred And Three

From the Office of the Minister

Memo to Staff

Dear Diary

24 January 2006, 10:37 pm.

My head still aches. The party was half relief, half dejection. 103? It could have been worse. Those that stayed on? That could be worse, too. The boss looked happier than I have seen him in months. Someone else will be the new boss in a few months. How many have there been? Bosses. There was that one weekend in ’84 I thought of being the boss. Helen was right. I never did have the charisma of Eugene Whalen.

What can they do with 124? And who is going to back them? Maybe it will be a matter of who won’t – with all the party’s debts another election in 2006 would destroy us. I’m too old to need this many asprin.

#2 – It’s Done

The Prime Minister has congratulated his opponent and offered his support in the transition to a new government. He has also announced that he will not lead our great party into another election. The people have indeed spoken, and it is not pleasant to hear.

I spoke to my own campaign workers, supporters, and friends, and thanked them for their (successful) efforts to return me to Ottawa for another term, although this will be a different task for me: on the wrong side of the house.

I would be lying if I said this was a welcome change of status. There was much left undone in my portfolio, much that I think would have been good and worthy, had I but had the opportunity to bring it before the house. Now, I must adapt to the eternal role of the loyal opposition: to critique the proposals of the new minister and (where appropriate) to dig in and oppose with all my might where those proposals are wrong-headed, obtuse, and ignorant of the reality of this great country.

It is only a minority we face, but we face it divided, leaderless, and unsure. We may have the strength to obstruct, but not yet to rebuild or even to hope to recapture our former position. Not yet, at any rate.

Censoring Over

Odd numbers so far. The Grits are leading in the popular early vote and did well in Atlantic Canada. NDP vote solid.

Update: Who thought the Liberals would get over 100 seat and over 30% of the vote?

Further Thoughts: What will it be?

Tories + NDP + a slightly wacko shock radio host… or

Liberals + Bloc + NDP anyone but Harper coalition

That second scenerio has about as much mileage as the Bloc’s future vision. What a weird result. It is truly the time for the Beacon of the Flea to guide us.

#1 – Dusk and Whisky

The figure stands at the dark window at dusk, a glass in his hand swirling, looking down at the street from his campaign office. The other one. Not the street level one where people can see you but the one he started booking for himself after his third election. Down the hall he could just make out the drumming of a typist.

“I am exhausted,” he thinks to himself. “It was a good race at least for me but what a mess…what a mess. My eighth. Feels much longer. When did those kids get in charge? How long has it been since we it that we didn’t speak about brand and spin or maybe even values? Back in ’84? What a mess that was, too. But every decade the House gets cleaned out. Looks like this one, the decade with no name, will be no different…”

He turns back into the gloom to the rented desk. Glass touches crystal. “After all that power – what now? I might was well be in the NDP for all the say I’ll have…like back in the 80s.” He drinks and touches the tip of his tongue to his lip, drawing air in through the whisky’s hot breath. “Who will be left with me? The boss? He even made that race interesting, the fool. Every election you never know who’ll be left with you. You never know…” He puts down the glass. “How long until ten?” he thinks as he checks his watch again.

[From Jan to March 2006, I tried a group humour blog with others on the subject of Canadian politics. It did not last but the posts were worth keeping. #16 was banned. There were no comments. It was at www.shadowcabinet.ca. The eight writers were anonymous political bloggers, identified only by a number – so I can’t recall who was who. I was #4. I wrote posts #1, #4, #7, #8, #10, #15, #17, #18, #20, #21.  In 2016, I added posts #22 and #23.]

Day Fifty-Six: Election Day

I think there was a mistake made by someone when the election date was picked. We were given too much time to think and too much time to talk. And what did we talk about over Christmas and New Years? The season of giving to the good and to the needy passed in semi-silence politically speaking but the polls show it was then that the fates of the candidates changed. We all have our thoughts but I think it was less about the news and more about the lull. Perhaps to create revisionist comforting unhistory in the mind. Perhaps to be angry…or likely just angrier than usual. Perhaps to be open to change.

Today we vote. Only today. I like to vote and I would vote more often if given half a chance. My vote will not elect a Member of Parliament. It never has. It will express my view, however, and that is more important. I feel badly for those who vote to pick a winner but not whose view aligns with those who will take their seats.

Update: Interesting to note that SES polling results for Sunday, the final day of SES polling in their last 3 day rolling poll [Warning PDF!] announced last night at 7:45 pm before the deadline (therefore not infringing s.328 to repeat by me here), shows a weird shift away from the Tories:

All voters

Tories – 33.2%
Liberals – 30.4%
NDP – 22.2%
Bloc – 9.4%
Green – 4.8%

Likely voters

Tories – 32.7%
Liberals – 31.0%
NDP – 23.3%
Bloc – 9.0%
Green – 4.0%

If there turns out to be a weekend collapse of Tory support, has SES seen it? If there is not, who was SES calling? All very slim information to be sure but as a NDP voter one has to grasp at straws.

Upperdate: I just noticed the best report from a all-candidates meeting over at Chris Taylor’s blog. Check out the scoring methodology.

Day Fifty-Five: Election Blogging On Monday

Interesting to note discussion of the wording of section 329 of the Canada Elections Act:

Prohibition — premature transmission of results

329. No person shall transmit the result or purported result of the vote in an electoral district to the public in another electoral district before the close of all of the polling stations in that other electoral district.

Pretty clear that blogging is transmission but is reporting popular vote at a national level? That is not the vote in an electoral district but it is a aggregation of votes and votes are only cast in electoral districts. This handy dandy timeline explains the back story and here is the May 2005 ruling from the BC Court of Appeal on the constitutionality of the transmission ban in s. 329. Here is the nub:

[59] In my opinion, when the s. 329 publication ban is seen as having the same purpose or objective as the staggered voting hours, that is, to eliminate the information imbalance that can result from disclosure of results before all of the polls have closed, the respondent’s argument concerning the lack of evidence to support the ban falls away.

[60] One of the contextual factors referred to in Harper was the apprehension of harm in relation to the electoral process. While the Lortie Commission Report stated that the availability of election results in Newfoundland and the Maritimes before the close of the polls in western Canada was not of “great concern”, assuming staggered voting hours were in place, it was clearly open to Parliament to decide what measures to adopt in meeting public concerns about the information imbalance. Parliament chose to implement the solution of staggered voting hours but also chose to maintain the publication ban on election results. Public perception of electoral fairness is obviously critical in a democracy. Given the extent of the public concern the Commission had identified about voter information imbalance, Parliament’s choice to leave the ban in place appears to me to be unremarkable.

[61] In determining that the Attorney General had failed to demonstrate by the evidence adduced that the objective of the s. 329 ban was pressing and substantial, it appears to me that the appeal judge overlooked the findings of the Lortie Commission about the very large percentage of Canadians who had expressed concern about information imbalance coupled with perceptions of electoral unfairness. In my opinion, this was not a case in which scientific proof of harm was required to justify the limitation on freedom of expression. What was required, and what the trial judge had before him, was evidence from which it could be inferred that there was a reasoned apprehension of harm to the legitimacy of the electoral regime if the publication ban, aimed at preventing information imbalance, was not continued.

[62] I note as well that McLachlin C.J.C., for herself and Major J, dissenting on the third party spending issue in Harper, agreed that the promotion of electoral fairness was a pressing and substantial objective. Her observations respecting the characterization of electoral fairness as a pressing and substantial concern are instructive in the present context (at para. 26):

Common sense dictates that promoting electoral fairness is a pressing and substantial objective in our liberal democracy, even in the absence of evidence that past elections have been unfair; see Harvey v. New Brunswick (Attorney General), [1996] 2 S.C.R. 876, at para. 38. A theoretical objective asserted as pressing and substantial is sufficient for purposes of the s. 1 justification analysis; see Thomson Newspapers, supra, at para. 38; Harvey, supra, at para. 38; R. v. Wholesale Travel Group Inc., [1991] 3 S.C.R. 154, at p. 191; McKinney v. University of Guelph, [1990] 3 S.C.R. 229, at p. 281; Edmonton Journal [Edmonton Journal v. Alberta (Attorney General), [1989] 2 S.C.R. 1326], at pp. 1343-45.

[63] Two of the other important contextual factors that need to be considered in this case are the nature of the expression the s. 329 ban limits and the period of time during which the ban operates. I agree with the appeal judge’s description of the type of expression being limited by the ban as falling “at the margins of political speech”. The ban in issue here is directed at information about election results and is intended to operate for only a brief period. The nature of the expression to which the ban applies and the brief time period in which the ban operates does not limit participation in political debate.

[64] It is convenient to note here that the respondent submitted that the ban in s. 329 is now obsolete because the advent of such things as satellite and cable television and the Internet makes enforcement difficult, if not impossible. He referred to some passages in the Lortie Commission Report to support his argument. In my view, difficulty in enforcement of the publication ban is irrelevant to the constitutional question. Many criminal and quasi-criminal offences are difficult to enforce but that does not mean that Parliament ought not to make them offences. The fact that the ban may be violated does not logically lead to the conclusion that the information imbalance between voters the ban seeks to remedy is not pressing and substantial. I would not accede to the argument that the relative ease by which the ban may be violated demands its constitutional demise.

Mind your step tomorrow.