Tag: Thinkin’ and Theory

Rob Moves Past The Tipping Point

Rob has written something very interesting and has packed in his faith that a tipping point is coming. I suppose my first inclination to find this interesting is based on the fact that I have never been a tipping-pointer or a dichotomist. The world and human participation in it is too complex. But the human perception and reaction to the world often is not. Because we like to sift for clues and establish principles mainly to give us comfort and get us through the day.

You only have to look at the reaction in Canadian political blogs over the war in Lebanon to witness the drive to simplify and give oneself comfort. Canada has a large Lebanese population in the area of the bombing and shelling so the natural reaction is to distance ourselves from their Canadian-ness as the reason for the bombing is justified. So these citizens for some become “Canadians of convenience.” Both sides in the conflict have endured misery for decades but as it is too hard to carry the weight in ourselves for all of them, we pick a side and give more validity to the life and death of a baby born to one side or another…but not both. With the news this morning of the death of a Canadian soldier at a UN post under Isreali bombardment, I am now bracing to read some fool say that it was somehow the fault of the generic boogieman socialism or even the fault of that soldier at his or her post – look out for the obscenity “heh, peacekeeper“. There is no end to what one can think when one has abandoned shame in favour of the need to simplify and justify for our own comfort.

But it is not only in crisis that we see this and, if you pardon the illustrative diversion above, that is where Rob has found himself:

Until very recently, I thought that the rules of the adoption curve or the Tipping Point would apply and that eventually everyone would “get it.” I no longer believe this to be true. I see no signs of any airline other than AMR going the Southwest Culture route. I see no signs of the US or Israeli military matching their asynchronous opponents. I see no signs of the Commercial media other than Murdoch making a shift to true particpation.

Interestingly, and to continue with the tangents, the same sort of idea struck me when I was reading Brewing Up A Business by Sam Calagione of the rightfully praised Dogfish Head brewery of Delaware. Throughout the book, which is more about being an entrepreneur than about the beer, the basic question is asked “how can I make the customer happy though my product?” The thing is your product will make the customer happy and it will also not. It will not provide complete happiness as the same customer will also like other beers – even maybe PBR at certain moments – or chewing gum or watching CSI reruns or junky used cars. But that complexity is not really the interest of the entrepreneur – all that matters is that entrepreneur’s success. This means addressing the particular need of the customer…but not all need.

Back to Rob, that is why there will never be a tipping point given a slow set of changes like the internet provides – and digitization and optic fibre and other innovations of the late 20th century before it. Most people will still like postcards, the telephone and email. Many people will still like to pay cash at the grocery for milk even if they are prepared to use paypal on eBay or give their credit card to Amazon. Many will kick at the wonder that is western-style socialism which they blame for everything (including in large part their own failings of imagination) and yet rush to the emergency room with a rough cough whipping out the medicare card, demanding service now. Many will consider their own children different than those dying in the Congo or Iraq or Lebanon. Because we are too complex and have to deal with ourselves in a too complex world.

So what does this mean for Rob? It is right that some will get it as only some get anything. Everyone gets something just that much of what is gotten has no commerical, social or political value. It is what we each like because it is what we are each like. Some apparently do not even get the fact that the Blue Jays are worth disliking. But if you get all that there is a way to get ahead…and not just by getting a hat. It has something to do with accepting the inherent belief system described above and how it provides infinite choice among all the variables to grant the dignity of singularity…and the Jays sucking.

Less Is Different Because Of The Internet Than Claimed

A book must be out somewhere because there are interviews about the Long Tail all over the place. The Long Tail refers to a graph and that point on a graph where many different things are happening so rather than describing an spike in activity, it is showing an extended diversity. Someone has decided that this is what the internet has caused.

To a degree this is a correct observation but only to a degree as, in large part, it is not. This is because it is a catchy generalization that can be applied and misapplied with confidence. One basic principle that is largely ignored is both the incompleteness and over-self-congratulatory praise that accompanies it. So we have a tendency, like with refereces to “post 9/11” to accept that everything has changed – without the slightest reference to what was before. One very handy illustration of this is from these two posts at Bound By Gravity where Andrew (Canada’s best blogger at the moment) assumes and then catches himself assuming that the internet has had an effect on reading.

This sort of thing has become rampant. Recently I saw a reference to how difficult it must have been to travel by car before the internet based on the assumption, one supposes that mapping began with MapQuest. Another, more to the heart of the error of the Long Tail, is that people lived lives permeated by mass media and mass production. First, this presumes that people defined (and define) their lives by media and product – as subjects of consumption. That presumption is based on the limited ability the internet has to provide: it can only deliver communications and provide a venue for ordering product. Second, people did live out personal niche interests as actively and fully as they do now. People bought rare stamps, comic books and music. People read things that no one else read and held ideas that were different from their neighbours – hence, among other things, the great splintering schismistastic fun that is protestantism. They just did not do it publicly and through a medium that recorded the activity digitally. It was done by mail orders, letters, conversations, meetings. In rec rooms, via ‘zines and through posters stapled to utility poles.

Structurally, even with the opportunity to watch old videos on YouTube, the internet is just another mass medium and as dangerous a one as ever there was through its active denial its own nature is a mass medium. The third issue of Geez magazine came last week and is full of good advice on cross checking the effect of the internet on your values. Are you more materialistic? Are you more prone to follow the poltical and ethical messages of others? Are you more part of the Borg?

Remember, the internet is good fun and can be used responsibly. Be careful out there.

Things I Love About Canada

Wow. I am sure glad that my folks got to this place. And not just cause Europe (and Grannie, too!) turned out to be socialists! But because Canada is really great as our celebrations on July 1st…celebrate. Here is my list about what I really like about Canada – you add yours:

  • Paddle to the Sea. I hadn’t thought about this NFB movie from the 60s for decades and, voom, there is it as the absolute paradigm of the nation’s soul.
  • Wacky idealistic politicians who turn out to stand for exactly the opposite of what they pledged to the benefit of us all. Trudeau claimed logic and was nutty enough to put us on the world stage through doing all sorts of things largely since undone. Mulroney pretended he was fiscally prudent but never finishing the job, acting like he was under Washington’s wing but helped leverage the end of apartheid. Chretien being a nutjob yet getting finally getting 30 or 40 years of deficit financing in line while making us love him for choaking a citizen.
  • Comedians who leave for the US market. They are the good ones and you can tell because the CBC rejects them. SCTV is a perfect example. And did you know Saturday Night Live was turned down as a project by the dullards?
  • Maple products. We eat the blood of trees. What is neater than that?
  • Federalism and how it divides us. Think about it. You have a mobile population, largely made up of immigrants over the last couple of generations, drop them into ten jurisdictions and – whammo – they learn to dislike each other and hold on to what they have and try to keep it from others. Overlapping redundant bureaucracies foster these jealousies.
  • The neediness. From the whole flag on the backpack in Europe and how much that makes tourism operators their love us so much to the hand wringing about how we should be doing this or that on the world stage. The best is the argument over what Canada stands for. What does Belgium stand for? No one cares. We are a nation of whining twelve year olds and we don’t see it.
  • Trees. Both Kingston and Halifax, my two favorite home cities, still sit in the woods and are full of the damn things. That is why downtown Toronto feels so weird. You can’t see the trees. We love them so much we have provincial and Federal parks that we hardly every use but are great when you do. Ontario‘s park system is particularly amazing.
  • The flags. We have the weirdest flags. The national one has a bit of a tree on it. And look at New Brunswick’s – who the hell ever picked that yellow? British Columbia looks like it was designed for a space traveller worship cult. Alberta’s politicians lobbied hard to further reduce the size of the crest and add even more blue.
  • Events like today’s England v Portugal create some small but telling discomfort between immigrant groups of different generations based on their understanding of what this country stands for even though they are compatible visions.

Me and mine? We are off for a ballgame in the US and some pie. Hey – there’s a double header today.

The Politics Of Science

Let the re-engineering of knowledge begin!

The new Conservative government has decided to slash spending on Environment Canada programs designed to fight global warming by 80 per cent, and wants cuts of 40 per cent in the budgets devoted to climate change at other ministries, according to cabinet documents obtained by The Globe and Mail. The documents also say that the Conservatives’ campaign promise of tax breaks for transit passes would cost up to $2-billion over five years, but would result in an insignificant cut in greenhouse-gas emissions because the incentives are expected to spur only a small increase in the number of people willing to trade using cars for buses and subways.

Interesting to note that, like the baby bonus toddler luxury cash grab, the bus pass money will cost a lot and do little. This seems to be a theme with Harper: cut and spend in reaction to assumptions rather than statistical studies or actual science. Now don’t get me wrong – every program aimed at a goal does not necesarily represent the best or even a good means to achieve that goal.

But our new rural overlords do not seem to be operating on that basis either. It’s all coffee clatch science: “I’ve heard the Smiths believe in evolution…how could we come from monkeys?…that must be wrong ’cause monekys are smelly…evolution is a lie.” Try it with global warming, finance policy or anything else. It’s like putting on 3D glasses when no one told you the movie was in 3D, you just thought what you were watching was fuzzy for no apparent reason.  The knee jerks instinctively.

This Friday’s Friday Chat

What kind of week was it? It was hopefully the last glimpse of a skim of
snow. It has been a fairly optimistic week otherwise with lots of contact with
old friends over the internet, planning a summer reunion in Halifax at the end
of July. But what else has the internet done for me lately?

  • Update#2: Just remembered that I forgot to remember to post about hearing Perry F. Rockwood on “The People’s Gospel Hour” this week on 1170 AM WWVA Wheeling, West Virginia while I was hunting for baseball. It is a Nova Scotia produced radio evangelical program seemngly on every station everywhere on the Maritime Canadian AM dial when I was a kid. I thought I had blogged posted before the soft spot I have for Perry’s voice and his pronunciation of “Boston, Massachusetts” at the end of every broadcast but I cannot find that reference via a search. So much for the internet. Good news! Perry is 88 and going strong.

  • Update: Iggy
    might get me to vote Liberal for the first time ever.

  • Mr. Harper is having a first brush with reality, needing now to debate the
    Afghanistan
    mission, having to pull back a
    contract to an insider     on accountability policy of all things and generally
    having to put a decade worth of puffery to the test. He is doing reasonably well
    but any claims to sightings the second coming of anyone’s Messiah are
    pre-mature. His tendency to secrecy and making up reasons for the things he does
    out of the air are going to get to be as annoying as his love of junior
    micro-management. He is not the only clever guy in the sandbox but at least he
    is a change and a keener. There is much good in hiring a keener.

  • It’s been a hard week for the creationists and Biblical literalists among
    you so there will be a round on the progressive faithful at happy hour today –
    soda pops for thems that want them, the good stuff for thems that need it.
    First, a
    transitional fossil     has been found linking our fishy forefathers to our
    monkey-like ones. I’ve never had a big problem with the scaley and tail-y past
    we share and suspect God has a good giggle at the trashing about people do to
    figure out what is what. I think reference to The Book of Job is
    instructive wherein the Creator took one of us aside and said “Huh? You think I
    tell you all the good stuff?” Then there was the
    Book of Judas     finding. Seeing as the Deas Sea scrolls were found in some guy’s tinder pile as
    he was stoking the flames of another fire under the bubbling stew pot for his
    family ‘s dinner, it should come as no surprise that there are loads of
    alternate versions out there. So raise a glass in commisseration for the
    fundamentalists whose fundamentals got a little shifty this week. Pray hoist ye,
    bruvvers and sistahs!

  • Has anyone started podcasting lately? I am feeling more and more that as
    bloggy text is actually solidifying as a hobby, podcasts are going the way of
    ham radio – nerdy and little understood. But it is not in the nature of the web
    to analyze what it likes to call its lesser successes. What people may be
    realizing is simply the difference in effort required to control text as opposed
    to sound. And podcasting needs a public success. After all, all of bloggy
    legitimacy has centered on one event, the great whoop-tee-doo of the firing of
    Dan Rather. Podcasting needs its similar Jimmy’s-in-the-well moment. It has yet
    to come.

  • Finally, I know someone who has had a windfall. I won’t tell you who or what
    but it was a surprising sign of my late-arriving semi-maturity that I did not
    curse my lack of such luck. Maybe it is the return of baseball, the passing out
    of winter or the general state of good tidings that have been surrounding me and
    mine far and wide but there was none of the usual gnashing gut churning
    why-does-this-never-happen-to-me stuff. Why is that? Am I losing my
    touch?

Well that is it for today. Let us gather and chat about things
we really do not understand fully and allow the glory of the medium give us
credence far beyond the quality of our thoughts.

Click Fraud Revisited

I just noticed this article on click fraud in Wired care of Boing and found a very odd thing – a moral argument for the rights of property holders:

By splitting revenue with the sites that host the ads, search engines have become, in effect, the Internet’s venture capitalists, funding the content that attracts people to the computer screen. Unlike the VCs who backed the boom-era Internet, search engines now provide revenue to thousands of wildly diverse sites at little up-front cost to them – PPC advertising is one of the few income sources available to bloggers, for instance. If rampant click fraud overwhelms the system, it will muffle the Internet’s fabulous cacophony of voices.

I don’t know how click fraud actually qualifies as fraud in the legal sense. I don’t know of a crime being committed or a contracual relationship being breached. The main example given in the story is one of extorsion, the threatening of Google with release of a autobot clickotron unless payment was made. Sadder still is the illustration of slogs – spam blogs – who exists only to generate traffic click throughs for a wee cheque:

Thousands of splogs exist, snarling the blogosphere – and the search engines that index it – in spam. Splogs are too profitable to be readily discouraged. According to RSS to Blog, a Brooklyn-based firm that sells automatic-blog software, sploggers can earn tens of thousands of dollars a month in PPC income, all without any human effort.

Imagine. Vacuous blogs created for alternative purpose. Whoda thunk it? The problem, of course, is the seduction of the technology generally and what it does to one’s thinking and one’s ethics. How much different is the new economic moral thinking compared to, say, actual legal regulations like copyright and the intellectual property of others. Is it because this clicky activity undermines the beloved as opposed to the actual rights of others? It is primarily the violation of the new moral crime against technological advance that is decried by Wired – we have a new plan that demands new thinking, new commerce and new crimes for the old thinkers…and we will tell you what the new thinking is after we get to it, thank you very much.

Isn’t the real problem the false valuation? Isn’t it incumbant on a firm presenting a new mode of advertising to prove its effectiveness in the marketplace as a mechanism for setting the price? Is it that the clicks are invalid or is it the mechanism which clicks which is. Isn’t the real question whether a click ad represents or ever represented value for money. Interesting to note that the one realistic alternative mentioned is micro-payments…about ten years after they were laughed away by the new think.

Alternative Reality

When I think of all the promises that information technology has made but not followed through on, this is the sort of futurificationing that most alarms me:

The divide that separates people from their online lives will utterly disappear. Instead of leaving behind all those net-based friends and activities when you walk out of your front door, you will be able to take them with you. The buddies you have on instant message networks, friends and family on e-mail, your eBay auctions, your avatars in online games, the TV shows you have stored on disk, your digital pictures, your blog – everything will be just a click away.

It could also kick off entirely new ways of living, working and playing. For instance, restaurant reviews could be geographically tagged so as soon as you approach a cafe or coffee shop, the views of recent diners could scroll up on your handheld gadget. Alternative reality games could also become popular. These use actors in real world locations to play out the ultimate interactive experience.

The promise of the review-laden world has been with us for well over a decade, before the internet when personal computing as being updated by CD-rom mailouts. Yet it is still a shock to find more than three reviews of anything on a site like expedia when you are looking for, say, hotel information. How does the human, disinterested in helping strangers by writing opinions provided for free, populate the world of content in this new world. That human won’t. There would need to be a model of exchange of idea to trigger an increase of participation beyond folks like me with foolish dreams of $2,000 a month from Google ads. But no one will pay me a nickle for my thoughts now – will anyone pay everyone for any of theirs?

But beyond that – why the brave new world of staring at a wrist watch screen wherever you go? What is so wrong with the people physically near you that you would want to exchange them for digial strangers? Again, for geeks of which I am of “C” grade, the transition is already in place. Is it that real is not play? It should be. Is it that real is not play that you rarely have the option of clearly winning? The digital world allows each Rob and Victor to know victories and even robberies that would never be possible in reality. It is any different than striving to be the guy who got the most points in the arcade? What kind of backbone would a society have if that actually became the pervasive goal?

Man Is The Measure Of All Things

Here is my half-baked unified theory essay based largely on idle car driving and long meeting daydreaming. Entire chunks could be rewritten and reversed, deleted even. I am too lazy to edit it any more and I am note convinced myself but, thought I, what the heck. I’m posting it for comment but given that I am calling it half-baked I would expect that the comment would not be of the “yor a moeron” sort. Pick out what you like, mix and match, compare and contrast:

I don’t know why the opening of Jane Taber’s column in the Globe and Mail last Saturday has clung to the back of my mind:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper spent last Saturday night at 24 Sussex Dr. fiddling with the TV, trying desperately to find the channel that carried Ben and Rachel’s favourite show, The Forest Rangers. It was the Harper family’s first Saturday night at the Prime Minister’s official residence — the family of four and their two beloved cats moved in just two days before — and the cable wasn’t hooked up. “I told Stephen I would arrange the channels on Monday, and he said, ‘No, let’s do it right now,’ ” Laureen Harper wrote in an e-mail this week. The Prime Minister proceeded to call the cable company…

It is not a sour thought at the sight of a Dad trying without any luck to figure out the electronics or a hapless moment for the new PM that saddens me. It’s that it was The Forest Rangers. Secretly, I hope it is a remake I have not heard of but I suspect it is that same show that was never part of my growing up – because even at 42 it was before my time. I suppose what makes me really sad is that in the last four and a half decades of entertainment communications there is nothing better for a couple of kids to watch than the show that made The Beachcombers seem like Shakespeare – even if their parents hold a pretty tight rein on the TV’s remote control. But I doubt it. Who would remake the Forest Rangers? Who now could?

Is this another post about the false promise of recent changes in mass communications? I suppose it is. This weekend, taking in a movie in a 1930s cinema as well as an excellent live hockey game, I was struck like I should not have been struck how the digital advance is something of a regression. We have a population that has, say, doubled in the last so many decades but the volume and variety of entertainments has exploded. And, while the technological advances have been impressive, has the content kept up? Is it possible that there could be so many more things with which to be entertained or informed without a relative dilution of the actual quality of content?

What have we given up due to the dilution? Audio fidelity in favour of tiny ear plugs. The ability to value excellence in favour of the ability to value what we choose or, worse, what we do. Even TV as a topic for water cooler talk is dumped in favour of the replacement of water cooler talk, the SuperNetWay. We have exchanged audience for authorship and awarded each of ourselves the same prize. Except maybe for Harper as Dad. For him there is that world of kids playing in a fort (without any explanation of who maintains it and on what budget) and helping with some sort of government administrative function in relation to lands and forests (despite the child labour laws). There is something back there in that show which is not here – the suspension of disbelief, that awareness that what your are taking is has acceptable flaws.

But we are such mooks now – suckered by belief in whatever we have placed before ourselves. All it takes is for a new self-flattering toy or medium to come along to make ourselves earnestly believe we must have it. And so with politics – we are so determined to be a vital player in the administration of government that we value our whim is as good as a policy borne of the toil of hundreds and the rulings of decades. We can no longer suspend our disbelief as consumers or citizens but are locked into our own certainty in relation to all things, creating a flat world where anything is pretty much as good as any other thing. We cannot defer. We must each be authority if we are also the personalize me. So no journalist is worth their salt, no policy can be trusted, no means to assert our own personal dominion of expression can dared be passed up. We each pick at the world yet pick each our own world. Less shared, less trusted. More me-like-ness.

Sometimes I think that the few years of this millenium have seen two changes which have melded unexpectedly: the rise of networked information technology and the rise of the fear and the security demand in response to terrorism despite almost five years now passing since, hopefully, the anomaly of 9/11 that shook us out of the sleep and pattern of tens upon tens being blown up here and there on a regular basis between nation upon nation, tribe upon tribe genocides. We can forget sometimes that there was life and community and many of the same problems in 2000, 1999 and before. We trick ourselves that all has been changed. About a year ago I wondered if we were post post 9/11. I wondered it again a few months later, the day before the bombings in London. But maybe the trick is on us, that the uni-mind of internet and homogenization of shared concern has left us burned a bit, blurred a bit even as we technologically assert our individual autonomy. So concerned with our fear of flying – even while we are on the ground – that we now have met unending earnestness and each of us shaken hands with it and made it our own. I thought there was an end to irony in the weeks after September 11th but now I think we lost more than just that as tools of surveillance and information merge in the one screen wired to the network, taking and giving, providing what we can say we have made up ourselves. We must believe now, nothing left to be suspended. Where would you stand during the suspension?

What to do? Doesn’t anyone think this is just a town full of losers to be blown out of? Maybe Steve does. Is the Harper family gathering around the black and white world of the past one way to assert the contrarian way? I still think it is a little sad but I don’t know why exactly. I wish them well.

NPR Expansion

Rob, who drew me into this gig of his as a volunteer, points out a very interesting phenomena: NPR is expanding:

While many newsrooms are shedding reporters—from the New York Times to the Dallas Morning News—NPR is one of the few places an experienced journalist can hope to get a job.
“I wouldn’t call it a binge,” says Bill Marimow, himself a former denizen of the print world. Fired from the Baltimore Sun in 2004, Marimow went to NPR and this week took over as its news chief. “I would call it significant growth.”

The NPR news operation has added 50 journalists in the past three years, raising the total from 350 to 400. Ten years ago NPR had six foreign bureaus; it just opened its 16th, in Shanghai, putting it in the running with major national news organizations. The New York Times and CNN both have 26, the Los Angeles Times has 22, the Washington Post has 19.

It is no secret that I love NPR and, frankly, I wish Canada had its own version that was more closely connected to the listener and viewer than the CBC is. For all the big yap about how the main stream media is bowing to losers like me who type in their pajamas and pretend (to the embarassment of our spouses) we are Edward R. Murrow reporting from the blitz…that is simply not what is occurring. We are watching re-ordering of news media not collapse.

Nothing new. It is part of the same phenomena that same the rise of talk-radio including political talk radio in the US. When I sketched out my seminal but now dust-coated plan for the left in North America, the first thing I thought of was taking back a solid part of the media. I am doing my part but apparently the $200 million gift to NPR from the estate of a nice person called Joan Kroc is being the NPR news boom. What good folk who want objective thorough news reporting (professional unbiased news being a classic progressive or liberal goal just as much as a cheap quality and broadly available education) need to do is put their money where their mouths are.

Others have proven this works. This is just the same as the US right realized it needed to do something and fund something somewhere back in the 60s, achieved break-through in the 80s and achieving inordinate dominance in the last decade. Just as with that shift, the change that NPR is part of is not a single path. Remember how many foretold the demise of Air America during its first days? Well, it is still there and has 89 stations. What we are watching in the reshuffle is an enrichment of news sources, just in the same way that broadcast shortwave radio provided and then cable TV again provided before the internet. The strengthening of NPR is one compliment to the strenghtening of talk-radio of all sorts along with pajamastan and the next new thing that we have not even heard of yet. More voices please.